The main implication of this idea is that as transistors get smaller and smaller, the increase in efficiency will lead to computing power and computers becoming faster and cheaper. Examples of innovations in digital electronics that have taken place thanks to the Moore`s Law push include the constant increase in flash memory and RAM capacity, the constant reduction in microprocessor prices, and even the amazing advances in the pixel quality of your phone`s camera. As transistors in integrated circuits become more efficient, computers become smaller and faster. Chips and transistors are microscopic structures containing carbon and silicon molecules perfectly aligned to move electricity faster along the circuit. The faster a microchip processes electrical signals, the more efficient a computer becomes. The cost of more powerful computers has been falling every year, in part due to falling labor costs and semiconductor prices. Experts agree that computers are expected to reach the physical limits of Moore`s Law in the 2020s. The high temperatures of the transistors would eventually make it impossible to create smaller circuits. This is because cooling transistors requires more energy than the amount of energy already circulating in transistors. In a 2007 interview, Moore himself admitted that » The fact that materials are made of atoms is the fundamental limitation and it is not that far away.
We`re reaching pretty basic limits, so one day we`ll have to stop making things smaller. Moore wrote that this exponential growth in computing power « would lead to wonders like personal computers — or at least terminals connected to a mainframe — automatic controls for cars and personal portable communication devices. » Moore`s Law is named after Intel co-founder Gordon Moore. In 1965, he predicted that the number of components in a computer chip would double every year. In 1975, he revised it every two years. He observed that as the computing power of the computer increased, each component would also become cheaper. Moore`s prediction turned out to be correct: the number of components in a chip has doubled about every 18 months in the five decades since 1961. However, many experts believe that Moore`s Law will soon no longer be valid due to the effects of quantum physics. Even Moore admits that his law will eventually end. Projecting a trend observed in recent history, Moore`s Law postulates that integrated circuits more or less double the number of transistors they can accommodate approximately every two years. Players in the semiconductor industry use this projection to guide their long-term planning by setting research and development goals that align with what they predict and turn it into a kind of self-fulfilling prophecy. Moore`s Law implies that computers, machines running on computers, and computing power will become smaller, faster, and cheaper over time as transistors become more efficient on integrated circuits. According to experts, Moore`s Law is expected to end in the 2020s.
This means that computers are reaching their limits because transistors in smaller circuits can no longer operate at ever higher temperatures. Indeed, the cooling of transistors requires more energy than the energy circulating in the transistor itself. In 1974, Robert H. Dennard of IBM recognized MOSFET`s rapid scaling technology and formulated what is known as Dennard scaling, which describes how their power density remains constant as MOS transistors become smaller so that power consumption remains proportional to the area. [17] [18] The scaling and miniaturization of MOSFETs were the main driving forces behind Moore`s Law. [19] Semiconductor industry data show that this inverse relationship between power density and surface density broke in the mid-2000s. [20] Transistors are one of the most basic building blocks of electronic computers. They usually consist of layers of processed silicon or another semiconductor material that are carefully spliced together to affect electrons in specific ways. The reliable small dimensions of transistors made possible this exponential explosion of circuit complexity.
In the 1940s, manufacturers measured transistors in millimeters. In the 1980s, transistors were reduced to less than a micron, a millionth of a meter, allowing dynamic memory chips to provide storage capacities in megabytes. Moore`s Law refers to Gordon Moore`s perception that the number of transistors on a microchip doubles every two years, even if the cost of computers is cut in half. Moore`s Law states that we can expect the speed and performance of our computers to increase every few years, and we will pay less for them. Another principle of Moore`s Law is that this growth is exponential. In 1990, a typical PC cost around $3,000. In 1992, the same amount of computing power cost $1,500 and dropped to $750 in 1994. Today, it would only cost about $5. Moore`s Law is the idea that the computing power of computers doubles every two years. The vision of an ever-strengthening and connected future brings both challenges and benefits. The reduction of transistors has led to advances in computing for more than half a century, but soon engineers and scientists will have to find other ways to make computers more powerful. Instead of physical processes, applications and software can help improve the speed and efficiency of computers.
Cloud computing, wireless communications, the Internet of Things (IoT) and quantum physics could all play a role in the future of computing innovation. Moore based his statement on a history of emerging trends he had noticed in computer architecture and chip design. His intention was not to create a fixed formula, and it was not he who called his observation « Moore`s Law. » His idea does not fit into the definition of a real law in the legal sense, nor into the definition of a theory in the scientific sense. It was an overview based on historical data, which over time turned into a sinister prediction that sensationalist journalism has now codified in a simplified form like a golden rule. Due to the intensive footprint of resources and toxic materials used in computer manufacturing, obsolescence leads to serious adverse environmental impacts. Americans throw away 400,000 cell phones every day,[142] but this high level of obsolescence appears to companies as an opportunity to generate regular sales of expensive new devices rather than keeping a device for an extended period of time, leading the industry to use planned obsolescence as a profit center. [143] Many experts, including Gordon Moore himself, believe that it would be impossible for Moore`s Law to remain valid forever.